Wrestling with Risk at SMACC 2013 St.Emlyn’s


Thanks so much to Chris, Oli and Roger for helping me put together this presentation from SMACC 2013 on wrestling with risk.

If you’re an ED doc then the summary is….

  1. You don’t make diagnoses
  2. You take loads of risks
  3. You usually get lucky
  4. It’s the right thing to do


Slideshare here

Thanks so much for watching and please subscribe to the blog….., oh and don’t forget to book your flights to the gold coast for next year’s SMACC Gold it’s going to be event better than last year.

Cite this article as: Simon Carley, "Wrestling with Risk at SMACC 2013 St.Emlyn’s," in St.Emlyn's, September 27, 2013, https://www.stemlynsblog.org/wrestling-risk-2/.

Posted by Simon Carley

Simon Carley MB ChB, PGDip, DipIMC (RCS Ed), FRCS (Ed)(1998), FHEA, FAcadMed, FRCEM, MPhil, MD, PhD is Creator, Webmaster, owner and Editor in Chief of the St Emlyn’s blog and podcast. He is visiting Professor at Manchester Metropolitan University and a Consultant in adult and paediatric Emergency Medicine at Manchester Foundation Trust. He is co-founder of BestBets, St.Emlyns and the MSc in emergency medicine at Manchester Metropolitan University. He is an Education Associate with the General Medical Council and is an Associate Editor for the Emergency Medicine Journal. His research interests include diagnostics, MedEd, Major incidents & Evidence based Emergency Medicine. He is verified on twitter as @EMManchester

  1. great talk Simon.


  2. excellent talk Simon. have also come to the conclusion that we are professional gamblers. I have friends who are journalists and still believe that “misses” always equate to some lazy b not doing their job right and so they need to put the story on the front page “pour encourager les autres”. Goes without saying that we need to have carefully studied the form of the horses we are backing however…


    1. Cheers Tim. I think you are right, although in our case we share the risks with the patient, ourselves and the regulator! What interests me is the difference between the reality of chance in diagnostics and the certainty of mind that many doctors have when they apply a diagnostic label to a patient. This mismatch in the reality and perception of certainty is fascinating and whilst we usually get away with it the certainty element means that we really do struggle to understand why sometimes things ‘appear’ to go wrong.

      Many thanks for the comment.



  3. […] Emergency medicine is often considered to be a risky speciality in that we deal with a population of patients who may go on to have adverse consequences of their […]


  4. […] first book on metacognition for the emergency physician. Arguably this book started way back in 2013 at the first SMACC conference when I spoke on how we wrestle with risk in emergency medicine. That talk led to a series of blogs on clinical decisions in a probabalistic […]


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